This spring, legislatures around the country are considering new private school choice programs, or expansions to existing ones. Yet, as Matthew Ladner writes on Jay P. Greene’s Blog, that does not mean private schools are likely to see a huge increase in student population.
Private school enrollment has been declining around the country, and the drops accelerated during the Great Recession. The advent of charter schools may also be a factor. Some students seek options of all kinds beyond their traditional zoned school. That means some private school students will likely be drawn to new, tuition-free alternatives charters offer.
Ladner cites a Rand Corporation study, which found that in Michigan, for every three new charter students, one had been drawn from a private school. Student transfer data suggests that while the numbers look a bit different, similar dynamics are likely at work in Florida.
Private school choice programs are pushing against these trends. Using Rand’s numbers, vouchers and tax credit scholarships would need to serve one student for every three new charter school students for private school enrollment to remain level, or rebound, as it has begun to do in Florida.
Shoring up private school enrollment isn’t the main reason for school choice policies, but Ladner uses this calculus to drive home a larger point: If they aim to create systems in which all families have access to the schools they want, private school choice advocates have their work cut out for them, and many recent successes haven’t been ambitious enough. He writes:
The goal of the private choice movement should not be to preserve a preexisting stock of private schools per se, but rather to allow parental demand to drive the supply of school seats.
In other words, as long as demand outstrips supply for vouchers or tax credit scholarships, that’s a sign of pent-up demand for private education among parents who cannot afford tuition on their own. The same goes for charters with long waiting lists because the supply of charters is constrained. In just about every jurisdiction in the country, both sectors would have to continue growing to meet the needs of all the parents who seek those options.
But Ladner notes that Florida is one of just a few places where the charter sector is showing strong growth, and private school choice programs are keeping pace, allowing private school enrollment to stabilize and even start growing again. Indiana is another. Therein lies his call to arms to private school choice movement:
Seen in this context, many private choice victories seem worthy but incremental. Incremental change is the equilibrium point of American politics, but the choice movement needs more Indiana style successes. Once more unto the breach dear friends…
There’s another question in the background. If there are some students who move between charter and private schools in search of options beyond their zoned public schools, will school districts respond by finding their own ways to attract and retain these students in their own programs? In Florida, they may soon have all the more ability, and incentive, to do so.
